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Influence is alive and well in the world. Spheres are not. The fantasy of super-regional autarky should have died some time ago. Today, regional states have minds and arsenals of their own. If Brazil elects another Bolsonaro, it won’t be because Brazilians want to join a US–MAGA sphere. If ASEAN sometimes speaks a few sweet words, it doesn’t mean its members want to be tribute-paying subjects of a Sinosphere. If anyone in the EU, which remains the world’s second largest economic body, entertains the idea of living under a Russian yoke, he ought to have his head examined.
The same holds for the influencers. They have enough problems at home to pursue grand fantasies abroad.[*] Does any serious Sinophile wish to fly a Chinese flag over Tokyo? Does any serious Russian wish to conquer Warsaw or Paris? To recall what a Russian general once said to a friend from NATO: the Poles have never joined an alliance that didn’t subsequently dissolve; you’re welcome to them. The ‘sphere of influence’ of earlier centuries is a bogeyman. Let it be.
Listen, alarmists: if the leaders of China, Russia, & the USA want to hold a pow wow to speak strong words about ending the war with Ukraine, demand an invitation. Demand that they also speak strong words about ending the war with Iran. Each war is as futile as the other. Demand that the leading powers of the world have the courage of their convictions, and start leading.
[*] Apart from one or two notable exceptions.
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